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NFL offseason power rankings: No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs try to keep dynasty going after Super Bowl loss

julho 25, 2025

Super Bowl LIX started fine for the Kansas City Chiefs. On their first offensive play, Patrick Mahomes hit JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yards and a first down.

That was the last first down the Chiefs would get until the third quarter, after Kendrick Lamar’s halftime show and long after the Philadelphia Eagles had turned the game into a blowout.

It was stunning to see. The Chiefs were expected by nearly everyone to win a third straight Super Bowl. They got demolished instead. Kansas City’s offense, led by a quarterback who has already established himself as an all-time great, was overwhelmed. Mahomes had started 132 games, including playoffs, before Super Bowl LIX kicked off. The Chiefs had lost only three of those games by more than 15 points. They lost by 18 to the Eagles and had to rally to make it that close after falling behind 40-6. In many ways, it was the the worst game the Mahomes-era Chiefs have played.

The blowout loss ruined a season that would have been the best in decades for plenty of NFL franchises.

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“Whenever you lose, you kind of have this taste in your mouth that you want to go out there and revenge that, or whatever you want to say,” Mahomes said this summer on the Up & Adams podcast. “I feel like I’ve had to sit back and just listen to people talk and talk, and I’m like, ‘Let’s just play football and just handle it all out there.'”

“I don’t really want to talk about it. I just want to go out and show who we are as the Kansas City Chiefs.”

For most teams, they wouldn’t mind talking about a season that began with 15 wins in 16 games, then included a playoff run that included another AFC championship game win over a very good Bills team. The Chiefs are ready to treat it like it never happened, like the Titans or any other team moving on from a 3-14 season.

For as great as the Chiefs have been and still are, the loss seems like a pivot point in what already has been a great dynasty. The Chiefs might go on and win many more AFC championships and Super Bowls. But that’s a bit more complicated because the 2024 Chiefs just had a really weird and borderline miraculous season.

The Chiefs are still on a streak of 17 straight wins in one-score games, which is an NFL record and one of the most ridiculous heaters ever. Even if we acknowledge that Andy Reid and Mahomes give the Chiefs an edge in close games, going 10-0 in games decided by seven points or less and 5-0 in games decided by three or less is remarkably fortunate. At one point last season the Chiefs were 12-1 and 10 of their wins had come by seven points or less. And the manner in which the Chiefs won some of those close games was preposterous and unsustainable, to say the least. The field goal isn’t going to always doink in against the Chargers, a fourth-and-16 defensive pass interference against the Bengals isn’t a given, Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely’s toe sometimes will land in bounds, the Raiders aren’t usually going to have a shotgun snap go off their quarterback’s shoulder when they’re in field goal range, and the Broncos aren’t getting that short field-goal attempt for the win blocked all that often. Those are the highlights of the coin flips — if we can even call them that, considering coin flips are 50-50 propositions and the Chiefs survived a few situations in which they were far below 50% to pull off a win — that went Kansas City’s way.

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DVOA had the Chiefs as the eighth-best team in the NFL. The Chiefs’ point differential of +59 indicated they should have been about a 10-win team, five below what they actually had. They didn’t rank in the top seven of any total, passing or rushing EPA (expected points added) or success rate metric on offense or defense. Kansas City had a net yards per play (offensive yards per play minus defensive yards per play allowed) of -0.31, which was 23rd in the NFL according to OddsShark, two spots behind the Titans. Giving up in Week 18 and sitting starters in a 38-0 loss to the Broncos skews those numbers, but the 2024 Chiefs still didn’t profile anywhere near a 15-win team.

If this were any other team, we’d look at these stats and immediately recognize a team that got incredibly lucky last season and is due for a massive regression after being exposed by what looked like a far superior team in their final game. But this is the Chiefs. We treat them differently, and they have earned that.

Where do the Chiefs go from here? Does the dynasty roll on? For that the Chiefs would either need to improve overall or maintain a mind-blowing run in close games. Perhaps both happen. Every time it seems like the Chiefs are showing some kind of weakness, they win another AFC championship. This season they’ll welcome back receiver Rashee Rice from a season-ending knee injury, though he could face an NFL suspension for his role in a multi-car accident last year. Running back Isiah Pacheco never seemed right after returning from a fractured fibula, and it should help if he returns to form. Travis Kelce decided to return for another season instead of retiring. Kansas City was able to retain some key free agents this offseason. There are positive signs going into the season.

Kansas City seems determined to show that Super Bowl LIX was a fluke. On the other hand, it can be argued that plenty of their 2024 season success was fluky.

Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs return for another season after a disappointing Super Bowl loss. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

(Logan Bowles via Getty Images)

Offseason grade

The Chiefs went into the offseason looking like they would lose multiple key players from last season’s AFC title team. But they got to work and were able to retain linebacker Nick Bolton and guard Trey Smith, the two top targets, while also bringing back edge rusher Charles Omenihu and receiver Hollywood Brown. Safety Justin Reid departed in free agency, though he can be replaced by intriguing second-year player Jaden Hicks. The Chiefs traded guard Joe Thuney, and that’s worrisome given how badly the offensive line struggled in Super Bowl LIX, but they signed offensive tackle Jaylon Moore to a two-year, $30 million deal and drafted tackle Josh Simmons in the first round. The Chiefs will have to figure out their best five linemen but they have options. Kansas City also signed cornerback Kristian Fulton and he should play a big role right away. Maybe I’m giving the Chiefs too much credit for their offseason, but retaining Bolton, Smith, Omenihu and Brown when it looked like all four might be gone, and still being able to add two offensive linemen and a good cornerback was pretty impressive.

Grade: B+

Quarterback report

It’s sacrilegious to say anything bad about Patrick Mahomes, but his numbers have taken a pretty big dip the last two seasons. Here are his per-season averages:

2018-2022: 4,791.4 yards, 38.4 touchdowns, 9.5 interceptions, 8.1 yards per attempt, 106 passer rating

2023-2024: 4,055.5 yards, 26.5 touchdowns, 12.5 interceptions, 6.9 yards per attempt, 93 passer rating

It’s possible to give Mahomes his rightful credit as a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and still acknowledge that he is coming off the two quietest seasons of his career (which were still pretty good for most quarterbacks). Mahomes didn’t have a passer rating under 98.5 his first five seasons, and he hasn’t been above 93.5 either of the past two seasons. Part of that has been the talent around him. The attrition at receiver was really bad two seasons ago, Rashee Rice’s season-ending knee injury in Week 4 was a setback last season and Travis Kelce’s age-related decline is a factor too. Defenses have focused on taking away the deep ball from Mahomes with an abundance of two-deep safety looks, which turned into a league-wide trend, and that has eaten into his numbers as well. For Mahomes, the deep passing game is the key element to revive the Chiefs’ passing game.

“I think for me I have to be better at throwing the ball down the field,” Mahomes said, via KMBC. “I mean obviously, we weren’t good enough there. We’ve had success in prior years but these last few years we haven’t done that. In order for our offense to be great, you have to be able to complete those passes, it opens up everything else.”

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Kansas City didn’t seem as strong as previous versions last season, but all the Chiefs did was go 15-2 and make yet another Super Bowl. Kansas City still has Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and as a result is favored in 16 games this season (+2.5 at Buffalo) and is one of four teams with a win total of 11.5 at BetMGM. The Chiefs have gone over their win total in 10 of the last 12 seasons, despite that win total being at least 10.5 in each of the last six seasons. If first-round pick left tackle Josh Simmons can be even average protecting Mahomes, expect Kansas City to win a 10th straight AFC West title and be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC playoffs.”

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “For most of the spring I was sure I wouldn’t be drafting Travis Kelce this year. He’s entering his age-36 season and his YPC tumbled to 8.5 last fall. But Kelce’s volume always comes guaranteed in Kansas City — he’s had at least 103 targets for ten straight years, with an average of 131 — and the Chiefs might be managing a Rashee Rice suspension at some point in 2025. Kelce doesn’t move as well as he once did, but he’s always going to be 6-foot-5 — the biggest target downfield, the immovable object. Kelce’s fantasy floor is sturdy enough that I’ll consider him at his current Yahoo ADP in the mid-60s.”

Stat to remember

In Travis Kelce’s rookie season he played just one game due to knee surgery. Not counting that one-game season, 2024 was by far the worst of Kelce’s legendary career. For the first time he posted a yards per catch under 10.6 yards. He was at 8.5. Every season before 2023 he was above 12. Kelce had three touchdowns, another career low. For those expecting Kelce to come alive in the playoffs, he had 58.3 yards per game in the postseason, the lowest mark of his career. Kelce’s 823 yards in the regular season were his career low, again not counting his abbreviated rookie season. None of that was totally unexpected. Kelce was 35 and the positive history of tight ends that age is sparse. Among tight ends 36 or older — Kelce turns 36 on Oct. 5 — there have been only four to top 400 yards in a season (Tony Gonzalez twice, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Ben Watson). Gonzalez is the only one to surpass 548 yards. Kelce is one of the greatest tight ends of all time and players at that level sometimes beat expectations for their age. But the Chiefs have to go into this season with a more subdued projection for a player who has been a focal point of their dynasty.

Burning question

How good is the Chiefs’ defense?

In 2023, the Chiefs defense was a revelation. It was among the best in the NFL and led Kansas City to a Super Bowl. In previous seasons the Chiefs were defined by a great offense; the defensive improvement allowed them to reinvent themselves in the middle of a historic run.

Last season the Chiefs weren’t quite as good on defense, but close. They were 10th in EPA (expected points added) allowed in the regular season, not counting Week 18 when the backups played, after finishing sixth the year before. They were ninth in yards allowed and fourth in yards allowed after finishing second in both categories the year before. It was still a very good defense, just a bit off of its 2023 excellence. This season the Chiefs return most of their starters. Jaden Hicks is expected to replace Justin Reid at safety, but he is coming off a promising rookie season in a part-time role, and new cornerback Kristian Fulton should also enter the starting lineup and be an asset. There’s some question over whether the Chiefs are a top two or three defense or merely a top-10 defense, or perhaps even take another step back. It’s wise to bet on coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and assume his unit should be good enough to keep Kansas City in Super Bowl contention.

Best case scenario

The Chiefs offense has looked a little more mortal the past two seasons, but maybe that’s the outlier. With Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice healthy again, Xavier Worthy coming off a promising rookie season and Hollywood Brown back, perhaps Patrick Mahomes reverts to those 2018-2022 levels and wins another MVP. Everyone knows that’s within his range of outcomes. The defense should still be at a top-10 level for another season. The Chiefs won 17 of their first 18 games last season in games in which they tried, and that was without them playing at their peak or really anywhere near it. They’re angry over being embarrassed in the Super Bowl and perhaps that gives them a new focus. It’s hard to predict another 15-win season, but the Chiefs could be the best team in the AFC, this time without needing all the good fortune of those close wins, go back to another Super Bowl and win it, all with Mahomes taking his third MVP. Then Travis Kelce can retire as a winner and go tour with his girlfriend full time.

Nightmare scenario

The Chiefs have been embarrassed twice in Super Bowls. The first time, after being blown out by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, the Chiefs started the following season 3-4 and did not make it back to the Super Bowl (though losing in overtime of the AFC championship game, which was how the 2021 Chiefs season ended, is nothing to be ashamed of). The Super Bowl hangover is real. Since 1993, the only team to lose a Super Bowl and make it back the following season was the 2018 Patriots. Some teams like the 2024 49ers have their seasons following a Super Bowl loss completely unravel. The Chiefs have played a lot of extra football — 21 playoffs games in Patrick Mahomes’ seven seasons as starting QB — and while that hasn’t affected them yet, it has affected many other Super Bowl losers. The Chiefs also have to worry about a Rashee Rice suspension, Travis Kelce slipping again as he approaches age 36, a strange downturn in the offense the past two seasons, the defense regressing a bit from its lofty perch two seasons ago and an AFC West that is rapidly improving. The Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West titles, and should be favored to win a 10th. But it might be much more challenging than it has been through most of the Mahomes era.

The crystal ball says

It was hard to rank the Chiefs. By any advanced metric they weren’t a top-five team last season. Yet, they were one of the nine teams in NFL history to win 15 regular season games (and probably would have been the second to reach 16 wins had they not punted Week 18), won yet another AFC championship and still have many bankable stars including living legends at quarterback and coach. The incredible run of close wins won’t go on forever, but the Chiefs will always win more than their fair share of those games. It’s hard to tell what has been the worse bet over the years: going against normal regression, or fading the Mahomes-era Chiefs. Both have been losing propositions. It also hasn’t been smart betting against the Super Bowl hangover.

It’s hard to drop the Chiefs too far in the rankings. I think they win the AFC West, even with the division rapidly improving. And they could win another Super Bowl if the breaks go their way again. But I’ll ultimately land just short of that and say Kansas City’s run of Super Bowl appearances ends this season. And they’ll probably prove that prediction wrong, as they usually do when they’re being doubted.

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